GCQ7 Update

Dear readers,

This will probably be the last GCQ7 chart as gold futures contracts are rolled into December and October (GCV7, GCZ7).

Hype is all over the place so sentiment indicator probably supports the case for some correction here, As previously mentioned USD is trying to bounce.



August Gold - GCQ7 Intraday (120 min) Chart

Gold, USD & Forex Update

Dear readers,

The USD is looking oversold here and some bounce might be expected. If you add a channel the way I did, you can see that the USD index is at the bottom of the channel. In addition, the USD just tested the psychological important 80 level – this level was rarely violated, ever.


USD Index Daily Chart (note the deep oversold condition of RSI 14)




































Try to avoid shorting the Yen as the crowed count this currency as a weak one. The interest rate on the yen is low and might continue to stay low for some time but the Japanese economy is not a weak economy in my book, not at all.

Particular vulnerable is the EURJPY pair which had already completed or might be very near to complete a seven years rally. A large correction is expected here – take note!

EURJPY Weekly Chart , Elliott wave count. (click to enlarge)





















Gold and silver had a nice rally (as expected) but some significant resistance seen for both. on the other hand gold in terms of Yen and Euro made some advance so the move was not all USD related. If the USD will start strengthening as it might gold can correct some of its recent 47$ rally. Corrections should be seen as a buying opportunity and the June low should hold.

Spot Gold weekly chart annotated with Fibonacci levels. (click to enlarge)

Gold and Silver Charts

Dear readers,



Yet again, minor consolidation might be over; gold and silver should be ready to move higher. Just my opinion, only the time will tell.



(SIU7) COMEX September Silver Intraday Chart (2 hours sticks)



















(ZGQ7) CBOT August Gold Intraday Chart (2 hours sticks)

GCQ7

Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium all up on the day.

Two hours sticks chart of COMEX August gold contract looking very similar to the COMEX September silver chart I posted two days ago.

Gold Market Update

Gold trading is directionless, sentiment is negative as I observe at mainstream media publications.


Gold markets structural developments:


Small-Lot Gold Futures

100 gram gold contracts to be issued in China and Japan :



"BEIJING, June 26 -- The Shanghai Gold Exchange will launch individual gold bullion trading nationwide in July by teaming up with Industrial Bank."

-source


"TOCOM hopes to inaugurate the new section, aimed at attracting individual investors with reduced trading risks, on July 9. The basic trading unit will be lowered to 100 grams from one kilogram for the existing gold futures. The per-lot margin will be fixed at 12,000 yen for July compared with 90,000 yen for the existing market. Transactions will be settled with cash, not with physical delivery. The daily price fluctuation range will be initially set at 120 yen, twice as wide as for the existing gold futures."
-source


India Gold ETF's


"Sandesh Kirkire, CEO of Kotak Mahindra AMC:

Q: Can you put into perspective as to how much you would actually be investing in physical gold and how much would be in money markets?
A: I think a significant portion will be in physical gold and very marginal amount will remain in cash and cash equivalents. "

-source

Few clarifications

Dear readers,


I got some nasty massages and emails lately, namely personal attacks. I just want to remind that I'm not a registered investment advisor, broker or dealer. All content on this site is either quoted from other online sources (normally linked to the source) or it is my own analysis and thoughts. Either way I do not recommend that anyone will act upon my analysis.

If you want to trade / speculate in capital markets be sure to take the time and study.

Regarding IMF, BIS, any other official organization and its employees: I have respect for all of those as I do think that some kind of supervision on the system is required. If I ever insult anyone or anything, please forgive me, I bag your pardon. My intention in referring to official institutions is to educate or archive events that I see as remarkable.

If time allows I will keep this blog up to date with my occasional analysis and anything interesting for me and my readers that I might find elsewhere.

As for the price of gold, it might be the case that higher gold prices will be required to support the structure of the global monetary system and general capital markets. Timing however remains a mystery.


Good Luck.

Few Notes

• There is probably an ongoing gold &silver options repositioning.

• Gold / oil ratio should continue to move up (15).

• Gold / silver ratio, many traders are probably taking this trade , not that wise especially for small or big trades, mid size can do better.

• XAU, HUI indices seem to confirm the turn.

• Trading continues to be internally technical.

• If I read the chart correctly 680 shouldn't be very difficult for start.

• The downtrend is dead, long live the uptrend.

XAUUSD Waves Update

Dear readers,

Gold have probably bottomed and in time will be headed higher to challenge recent highs at 700 U$D / 520 € / 83,000 ¥. Silver confirms this assumption and the silver /gold ratio shows relative strength.

Elliott Waves Cyclical view: The advance from the recent low consist of multiple sequences of intraday impulsive 5 waves patterns (visible on minutes charts). Despite the recent failed (v)[green] wave within the last (i) [blue] wave, the previous bullish Elliott wave count remains intact .

The count on the chart below is consisted of multiple first and second waves which are typical for extended third of the third waves. If the count is valid then the lion part of the advance is yet to be seen. I see no reason to mention upside target for now, as, the 700 $ level along the Euro and Yen targets need to be challenged first.


Again, Forex and Metals traders should note the possibility that gold and silver can go up along a rising USD index. (See chart here)

Strategy: buy pullbacks as long as spot silver above 12.37$ and gold spot above 632$.


XAUUSD (spot gold) daily chart

ZG, GC & Spot Charts update

Gold options expire, futures contracts are rolled over (June to August), Statistics coming in at 8:30 and 10:00 AM. Technically the market is extremely indecisive and market participants wouldn't want to be heavily committed.

Elliott Wave update will be coming as soon as the picture gets a little bit clearer.

ZGM7 CBOT Gold Intraday (120 minute) chart



















GCQ7 COMEX Gold daily chart



















XAUUSD (spot gold) daily chart

Elliott Wave Principle

Dear readers,

Gold and silver caught some bids today and closed higher along a rising US dollar. Those of you who have been following my posts were certainly not surprised.

Some readers have emailed me with questions like: how do I make my gold price predictions (which are often very accurate) and what technical indicators I use for trading?

Well, I look at many different things: price & volume action, chart patterns, candle sticks, Fibonacci levels, moving averages, PPO, RSI, Stochastic, Inter market relationships, market sentiment and more. But above all cyclical analysis, namely Elliott wave analysis.

Elliott wave analysis is far from being a perfect tool (what is perfect?) However, as regards to making predictions Elliott waves counting when combined with other market indicators is the most valuable tool in my opinion.

Once you understand how the wave principal works, you will learn to respect the market opinion, you will stop looking for reasons to explain why the market is doing this or that. You will learn to accept the cyclical nature of waves.

One excellent book for learning wave analysis is: Elliott wave principle by Frost & Prechter.

By the way, I'm currently reading Prechter's latest book: How to Forecast Gold and Silver Using the Wave Principle. This 483 page book is an amazing documentary which aggregates all of the author gold and silver real time analysis between 1979 -2001.

I will post a more detailed review once I finish reading this book. For now I would just say that while Prechter is usually known for his bearish predictions, I was very surprised to read about some extremely bullish price objective for gold that might still be valid today.



Short term technical update:

The price of gold is still inside the downtrend channel.


ZGM7 – CBOT June Gold Intraday (120 minutes) chart

Gold Channel Chart

The action today give the USD index a green light to go higher, don’t be surprised to see the Dollar index climbing higher for days, weeks and maybe several month.

As far as gold is concerned it is certainly possible that strengthening USD index will have less downside affect on the price of gold, but that remains to be seen.

For Fibonacci levels refer to the previous XAUUSD daily chart.

As always be cautious.


ZGM7 – CBOT June Gold Intraday (120 minutes) channel chart

Intraday Gold Chart

Dear readers,

Most assets rising in price today and the EUR/USD is higher, the price of gold is up. Positive liquidity which is oxygen for all assets markets appear yet again.

Technically: The price of gold managed to break above the sharp short term downtrend line. However, I opine that the last three candles on the daily chart are technically very bearish and that will have more implications going forward. The gold bears have spoken and showed forceful resistance.

ZGM7 – CBOT June Gold Intraday (120 minutes) chart below, annotated with Fibonacci lines and Elliott wave count

Drop & drop and drop...

Short term intraday turn up in the momentum indicators failed to materialize into rising gold prices. Gold then dropped like a rock below this month low.

A lower low after a lower high is technically bearish. Spot Gold is currently trading around the dreaded 666$ level.

The uptrend on the daily chart is still intact but might not hold.

Elliott wave cyclical point of view: I think we just witnessed a truncated v wave.

I'm not ready to get long term bearish here but more downside is certainly possible.

Spot Gold daily chart

Gold Market Commentary

As yesterday low failed to hold a selling spree begun. Buyers quickly lowered their bids and the price of gold tumbled. Personally, I had a small short term speculative position which was immediately stopped out for a minor loss. When a FOMC is scheduled I never hold a large position. So it goes...

Technically the daily uptrend is still intact. HUI, XAU, and GOX actually finished the day higher but GDX closed lower. Silver pulled back less then it normally does on events like this.

CBOT June gold (ZGM7) intraday (120 minutes) chart



















Gold in nominal USD terms is trading near record levels. If you refer to long term gold charts you will easily notice that gold have been trading at current levels for very short periods of time. I mention this because I think that physical buyers see current levels as unsustainable and thus shy of buying large amounts of gold. Some more time might be needed to digest the current price level. Hence, egg pattern, prolonged incubation process then an inevitable hatch.

All readers are welcome to share their outlook, analysis and opinions. You can do so publicly by posting a comment on blog or privately by email realggp@hotmail.com

Intraday Wave v underway but ...

Dear readers,

The gold market showed strength in the face of rising USD Index. This fact which probably surprised some traders - will be very useful at a later stage of this gold global bull market.

Technically, as the price of gold broke above the short term downtrend line the bottom was confirmed. Gold then spent some time back testing the downward slope line and then headed higher. Once gold managed to exceed the highs of the day (yesterday) a flood of market if touched (MIT) buy orders were all over the place and the price was quickly marked up.

GCM7 Gold June Comex Intraday (120 min) chart

























There is literally tons of resistance from here all the way to 700$. This is the intraday wave v and once completed a correction will be needed.


GCM7 June COMEX Gold daily chart


















To understand my technical work you must have knowledge of Elliott wave theory. You might want to check this online tutorial. For access you only need to be an Elliott wave international club member. If you can afford then order R. Precter book: How to Forecast Gold and Silver Using the Wave Principle.

Short Term bottom in place?

Dear readers,

Seems to me like intraday wave 4 is over and wave number 5 is underway which should exceed 698$ for the Comex June contract (GCM7). For the relevant Elliott wave count refer to this post.


A break above the short term downtrend line will give confirmation.

GCM7 Gold June Comex Intraday (120 min) chart

Short Term Update

Dear readers,

The Europe session will soon begin and the short term momentum haven't turned up yet. So whether we like it or not short term downside still possible. The GC June contract (COMEX GCM7) is trading between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Long silver short gold spread trades haven't been profitable for a while so take note. As always, keep an eye on XAU, HUI and Of course EUR/USD & Crude.


GCM7 June COMEX Gold daily chart

Gold Spot & Futures Charts

The USD Index hovers near decades lows, the EUR/USD pair kissed its all time high (~136.667) currently floating less then a cent below. The jury is still out as things can abruptly change on a penny or less…

So far June COMEX gold contract failed to exceed its late February high (~699$) while spot gold managed to trade above the same cyclical high. The contango is taking its toll.

XAUUSD Intraday Chart (4 hours candles). Annotated with Fibonacci levels and Elliott wave count ( wave 4 underway). As posted before; ~667$ spot remains target before heading higher.


















GCM7 - COMEX Gold June contract daily chart. Annotated with Fibonacci levels and Elliott wave count (wave iii blue underway). Note support at ~672$, just below the 50% Fibonacci line.

• As explained before, take any of my posts in the right time frame context.

• I observe and estimate that the price of gold is constructing an Egg pattern which requires extremely high degree of patience.

Educational Gold Trading Video Collection

Educational Gold Trading (or related) video collection.

Video wall by Blinkx.


Thanks for all video contributors, send me video links for inclusion consideration.

Market updates and charts will be posted as needed.

COMEX GOLD (GCM7)

Dear readers,

Just a quick chart update, this time for the COMEX Gold active contract (GCM7). COMEX is where the big guys like to hang out.

Platinum ETF might be issued in Switzerland

Daily chart - COMEX June Gold 100 OZ Contract (GCM7)