Showing posts with label Central banks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Central banks. Show all posts

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Gold price short term analysis

Dear readers ,


General observation: In the last several weeks some actions took place, all of them in order to stabilize systematical large size financial risks. Major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve(Fed) and the ECB are keeping a closer eye on the markets, apparently being more flexible and “creative”.

The above has probably a negative continues influence on the affinity to physical gold as an insurance – proof to major systematical financial risks.


Technical condition
Spot chart - gold dropped below the uptrend line which connect the August and December bottoms (2007) but managed to climb back, currently it closed right on that line.




Gold June future contract (GCM8) 8 hours chart - Topped at 1038$ , bottomed at 876$. resistance - so far the 38.2% fib (938$) - , 950$ -960$ (50%) . The downtrend linear channel is still encapsulating the minor uptrend so the bear force has the control on that time frame.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Japan Should Diversify Reserves

Markets normally lead the press…

Japan Should Diversify Reserves, Abe Adviser Ito Says

By Shigeki Nozawa

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, should invest $700 billion of its currency reserves in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and corporate bonds, said Takatoshi Ito, an adviser to the prime minister.

The reserves should be managed by a special fund that will gradually diversify into euros, Australian dollars and emerging- market currencies, Ito said in an interview in Tokyo.

Central banks in South Korea, China and Taiwan have announced plans to buy assets with higher returns than U.S. debt, contributing to a 7.4 percent drop in the dollar against the euro in the past year. -source



Long term 27 years Gold / Yen Chart (XAUJPY) Price scale : 10K Yen per Gold Troy Ounce.

gold yen chart

Friday, June 15, 2007

Switzerland gold sell ?!

The sell if they will isn't as meaningful as the reporter wants you to believe. Consider that the outstanding notional amount of gold over the counter derivatives is 463 billion USD , reported by the BIS December 2006.


Switzerland's central bank is to sell a further 250 tonnes of gold, dashing hopes for a revival in depressed bullion prices after months of heavy selling by Spain and Belgium.


The Swiss National Bank is world's fourth biggest holder of gold after the European Central Bank system, the United States, and the IMF. Most analysts thought it had stopped selling its horde after a 1,300 tonne "purge" between 2000 and 2004,

The SNB said yesterday it would feed a fifth of its remaining gold onto the market gradually between now and September 2009 as part of a rejigging strategy for its reserves.

source


COMEX gold contract for December 2009 is currently priced at about 750$


2009 comex gold chart

Monday, December 18, 2006

Gold & Central Banks

It is widely known that central banks hold significant amount of gold and actively participating in the gold market both as buyers and sellers. What is much less known is the exact way in which central banks count their ounces and perform their gold transactions. Neal R Ryan the director of economic research – Blanchard and Company Inc. published an interesting paper about this issue. The paper includes information about gold loans and swaps, Bullion banks - central banks relations, and the IMF opinions about these issues.

See my Previous gold & central banks related posts.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Gold ($, €, ¥) weekly charts

Some of the latest gold market news from around the world:

Singapore gold fund trading starts next week

SINGAPORE, Oct 5 (Reuters) - StreetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, would be cross-listed in Singapore next week in a move to capitalise on Asia's growing fondness for bullion.

It will be listed on Oct. 11 on the Singapore Exchange and would be Asia's first gold-based ETF.

StreetTRACK is the World Gold Council's New York Stock Exchange-listed product, with an average daily volume of around $400 million and assets in excess of $7 billion.-source



Official Statistics Confound Rumour of Heavy Central Bank Sales: CBGA Sales in Year 2 Confirmed as Well Under Quota at 393 Tonnes


As forecast in mid-September’s Gold Survey Update 1, sales by the signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) ended up far short of their annual 500 tonne quota at just 393 tonnes. This confounds market speculation during much of September that there had been a last minute rush to sell gold before the end of the second Agreement year (on 26th September) and that this was responsible for the period’s price weakness. -source



Riksbank reallocates gold and foreign currency reserves


The Riksbank intends to sell up to 10 tonnes of the gold reserve during the period 27 September 2006 to 26 September 2007. The sale is in compliance with the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) which was signed by 15 European central banks and came into force on 27 September 2004. The agreement, which runs for five years, enables the Riksbank to sell up to 60 tonnes of gold during this period. To date the Riksbank has sold a total of 25 tonnes of gold, 15 tonnes during the first year of the agreement and 10 tonnes during the second year. The Riksbank’s gold reserve currently amounts to 160 tonnes of gold.-source



CBOT 100 oz Gold Futures Surpass 60% Market Share


CBOT Full-sized Gold Futures Contract Surpass 60 percent Market Share for the First Time in a Single Trading Day
CBOT Full-sized Silver Futures achieves 10,000 contracts in open interest

CHICAGO October 4, 2006 The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) announced today that its Full-sized (100 oz.) Gold futures contract surpassed a market share milestone of

60 percent on October 2, capturing 64 percent of all listed Gold futures traded in North America that day. Open interest in the CBOT Full-sized (5,000 oz.) Silver futures grew beyond 10,000 contracts and set a new record of 10,064 contracts yesterday. The previous record was 9,959 contracts set on September 29, 2006.

Average daily volume in the CBOT Gold complex, consisting of Full-sized (100 oz.) Gold futures and options and mini-sized (33 oz.) Gold futures contracts, reached

52,464 contracts during September and achieved a market share of 54 percent of all Gold futures traded in North America for the month. -source



iShares Silver


BARCLAYS Global Investors has applied to register 15.2 million new shares in its iShares Silver Trust on AMEX doubling the total amount that could be invested, Reuters reported.

"We are registering additional shares. That does not mean the trust is automatically going to buy additional metal," Barclays spokeswoman Christine Hudacko told Reuters.-source



Year to date weekly charts of gold in terms of USD, Euro & Yen.


gold euro chart

gold usd chart

gold yen chart

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Gold Market News

Central Bank to increase gold metal reserves

RBC, 21.09.2006, Moscow 18:45:08.The Bank of Russia intends to increase the volume of gold metals in Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves, the Bank's First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told the State Duma budget committee today. The share of gold in the country's gold and foreign currency reserves is 3 percent at present. If the volume of gold metals increases, still its share will not raise, he noted.

The prices of gold and other precious metals have been rising lately but the market is correcting at present, Ulyukayev stressed. The gold price is now $550 per ounce, which is $80-90 lower than the record price. The metal prices are highly volatile at the moment, but the Central Bank has not imposed any limits on gold acquisition, he said.

Russia's gold reserves exceed 380 tonnes. -source

Agreement on electronic metals trading

By Kevin Morrison

Nymex Holdings is expected to issue $300m of shares to members of its metals futures division Comex, after an agreement on Thursday for Comex gold, silver and copper futures to trade electronically. -source

Finans Portfoy Launches First GOLD ETF in Turkey

Istanbul GOLD ETF, GOLDIST, will be offered to public on September 21st and 22nd.
Finans Portfoy, an Istanbul based asset management company, launches the first GOLD ETF in Turkey. Istanbul GOLD ETF, GOLDIST, will be listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and is expected to start trading next week. GOLDIST will be based on international Gold price and denominated in grams. -source


CBOT Expands Availability of Gold & Silver Options to Open Auction Market


CHICAGO, IL (September 20, 2006) – The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) announced today that it plans to expand the availability of its options on Full-sized Gold (100 oz.) and Silver (5,000 oz.) futures by listing the contracts on its open auction trading floor, side-by-side with the e-cbot® electronic trading platform, beginning in the fourth quarter of 2006. Currently, the contracts trade exclusively on e-cbot, the Exchange’s electronic trading platform.

Also, effective October 1, 2006, the CBOT is waiving all Exchange transaction fees for Metals options trading for all fee categories. The fee waiver will apply to Metals options trade transactions on both CBOT platforms. The transaction fee waiver will remain in effect until June 30, 2007. -source


American Stock Exchange Lists Central Gold-Trust

NEW YORK, Sept. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- The American Stock Exchange(R) (Amex(R)) announced today that it has begun trading the units of Central Gold-Trust under the ticker symbol "GTU". The Trust began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2003 under the ticker symbols "GTU.UN" (denominated in Canadian dollars) and "GTU.U" (denominated in US dollars) and is now dually listed on the Amex. -source

Monday, August 21, 2006

Gold Market Overview

Gold supply demand analysis papers

Two reports, the first is by the World Gold Council (WGC) and GFMS, published each quarter.

Gold supply demand analysis report I

The second report, the Yellow Book by Virtual metals / Fortis bank, published twice a year.

Gold supply demand analysis report II

The reports are worth reading and basically present the same information. However, each rely on different data and the numbers are not quite the same. In my opinion the data is not so accurate to say the least. It is impossible to track the complete supply demand of gold, some kind of gold transactions are taking place in each and every country and some markets are not very transparent.

Read this reports with a grain of salt , this is as good as it gets but take in to account that all analysts and entities have their own agenda , market sentiment , position and so forth.


Gold miners hedging

The Hedge Book by Mitsui Global Precious Metals, Virtual Metals and Haliburton Mineral Services – This report analyze the hedging practice (forward gold transactions) of the gold miners industry - I assume that this report is relatively accurate when compared with the supply demand reports. This report is tracking the gold mining industry and most of the hedge practice is concentrated with few big miners.

Gold miners hedging report


Gold over the counter derivatives report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

The Semiannual Over-The-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Statistics is comprehensive and provide some information on the size and structure of derivatives markets in the G10 countries and Switzerland. Gold OTC Derivatives are just a small fraction of total OTC derivatives, gold derivatives represents less then 1% of total Over-The-Counter derivatives contracts. Even tough, the numbers related to gold are running at hundreds of billions USD for notional amounts and tens of billions USD for gross market values.

This report is the least mentioned by gold commentators but it is the most important of all in my opinion, the reason? - The sums of money involved in the OTC gold derivatives market dwarfs both total supply demand annual volume and the full impact of gold hedging.

The OTC derivatives report is insightful for the reason it reveals the extremely large size of gold obligations, the numbers are so big that you can be assured that the gold bull market will last many years.

Gold over the counter derivatives report by BIS


CHEUVREUX Gold Report

This report by investment analyst Paul Mylchreest is not less then ground breaking. The report which was published early this year, carry the sub title - "Start Hoarding" and clearly present the bullish case for gold. – Well worth reading.

CHEUVREUX Gold Report



Entities mentioned


The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international organization which fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks.

The World Gold Council (WGC), a commercially-driven marketing organization, is funded by the world’s leading gold mining companies.

GFMS is a precious metals consultancy, specializing in research of the global gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.

Virtual Metals is a group of analysts specializing in precious and base metals, energy and soft commodities.

Mitsui Global Precious Metals is part of the Mitsui group and conducts its business in the precious metal market; it is also Japan's largest manager of commodity funds.

Fortis is an international provider of banking and insurance services to personal, business and institutional customers.

Haliburton Mineral Services Inc. is a private mining research and advisory business based in Toronto, Canada.


CHEUVREUX - equity broking and investment firm, subsidiary of Calyon and a member of the Crédit Agricole SA group.


 35 years price history of gold - log chart

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Gold and Silver –Charts & Commentary

The US Federal Reserve decided to leave Interest Rate Unchanged at 5.25 Percent, Its First Pause in 2 Years.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate chart


The gold market reacted with modest rally, somewhat abnormally but certainly not surprising - gold immediately sold off and traded at the low for the day.

spot gold intraday chart

Looking at the daily chart, Same Elliott wave count, this is wave (iii of III), triangle formation which will break to the upside in my opinion and result in a spectacular rally. Notice that gold can go to 630$ and the formation will still stay valid, It is also possible that gold will first break down (head fake). Silver will follow gold and can sometimes lead.

spot gold chart

spot silver chart

All in all a little bit more consolidation is possible but gold will head higher quite soon. Those of you who do not trade gold on an intraday basis can safely accumulate at current price and average up or down.


During Bull markets, for conservative positions - perfect timing is not as important as consistency and patience . On the other hand – for aggressive long positions and short positions of all kinds – Timing is everything!


Q2 2006 Gold Hedge Book Report
This 30 page report by: Mitsui Global Precious Metals, Haliburton Mineral Services, and Virtual Metals Research & Consulting. – Unique in depth analysis of the gold miners hedge positions. - Link

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Silver Weekly Chart

Silver is clearly on the lead, already trading above the July top, gold will soon follow.

China should actively manage 20-30 pct of forex reserves - govt economist

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China should set aside 20-30 pct of its foreign exchange reserves to be actively managed, a government economist said.

Xia Bin, head of the financial research institute within the Development Research Center, a think tank under the State Council, also said that China should increase its holdings of gold 'at the appropriate time.'

He said that the overly rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves could imperil management of the economy, and that steps should be taken to put excess reserves to work...- source



Below is a weekly spot silver chart with what I think are very important Fibonacci numbers. If you trade gold and silver then pay attention to this numbers.

Silver Weekly Chart

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Intraday Gold Chart Update

Gold surprised me on the upside today, climbing more then expected. But currently the price of gold is back inside the range I indicated (633$ - 618$). Don’t read me wrong, I fully expect gold to move much higher then 633$ and quite soon.


Russia's gold and currency reserves up $7.2 bln in week

MOSCOW, July 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves grew by $7.2 billion to $262.9 billion as of July 21 from $255.7 billion a week earlier, the Bank of Russia said Thursday. -source

Below is an intraday spot gold channel chart, hopefully this one holds for more then 2 hours. If this channel holds, gold will trade between 620$ to 647$ during the next 24 hours. Click on the chart for enlarged view.

gold chart

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Gold , Silver , Forex - chart update

First I want to offer my condolences for Indian readers who suffered horrifying terror event at the city of Bombay.

In the short term the technicals rule the price of gold. Gold was due for a bounce with or without the Bombay event (see yesterday chart).

The Aug gold future contract managed to close above its 50 DMA but is currently still struggling with the 50% Fib line. Spot gold did cross its 50 DMA as well as the 50% Fib line. Gold/Euro is back above 500 Euro, above the 50 DMA and above the 50% Fib. Gold/YEN is looking the most bullish, well above the 50 DMA and just below the 38.2% Fib. Gold/Silver ratio = ~55.64, Gold/Oil ratio =~8.64, Dow/Gold ratio =~17.38. Silver continue to lag behind - still below the 61.8% Fib and the 100 DMA.


Fib lines above the current price are resistance and Fibs below are support, the same goes for moving averages(see charts below).


Zimbabwe: RBZ Eyes Gold Mine


THE Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is reportedly eyeing a controlling stake in Globe and Phoenix Mine in a desperate bid to improve Zimbabwe's dwindling foreign currency reserves.

Sources told this paper that the Kwekwe-based gold mine was one of the projects that the Central Bank was eyeing with monetary authorities already having begun talks with unnamed horticultural producers for possible acquisitions. -source

By the way, anyone can copy my charts but please provide link and mention the source.

EWI are kind to offer free week(12 -19 July) of : Intraday Forecasts of US Stocks and EWI Financial Forecast Service- this service usually cost 6000$ a year , so this is a 115$ Free trail – check it out –( you only need to provide email and user name)


gold chart

gold futures chart


gold euro chart

gold yen chart



silver chart

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Gold and Central Banks

S.P from India Submits:

" I like your blog a lot and visit it to see your charts to guess the gold moves. I don't trade futures but interested in buying gold.

But presently, there seem to be no signs that the world will ever move towards a gold standard. The problems of the world itself are so huge to even think of going in that direction. The easier solution is being adopted and everyone is using their printing presses :)

I saw recently that even India increased money supply by 20% this year.
Do you see the gold breaking the 540 support in the next 1 year? The recent jump from support was gr8. I read somewhere that the recent dump, came because the British government decided to sell its gold partly, do you agree to it? "


India is a major power in the global economy particularly in the gold market. As most readers probably know India is the world's largest market for physical gold.

Central Banks are actively participating in the gold market, some as sellers and some as buyers. The European Central Banks have signed several agreements regarding gold selling. The first agreement was signed at September 1999 and ignited a strong rally(see chart below).

The UK signed the first Agreement but not the second (at the time the second Agreement was announced it stated that the UK government has no plans to sell gold).

I did not notice any press release regarding new UK gold sales so I can't agree with rumors. But they can certainly sell secretly (If they got any gold left)

OFFICIAL AGREEMENTS ON GOLD

Other Central Banks like Russia, China and UAE are buying or at least talking about buying gold.

Overall Gold continues to play an important monetary role and its importance is increasing along price - in my opinion. Yes, you are right, currently there is no sign of officially going back to the gold standard. However, one should not rule out a renewed gold standard or something similar.
Mr. Gary Dorsch published an interesting article which shows some interesting relations between global assets prices and gold. I had also posted about this subject and you can freely browse this blog archive.

See also : The importance of the Dow Jones / Gold, Gold / Oil & Gold / Silver ratios


Latest gold market headlines:


China, Raise gold holdings

China should take advantage of any weakness in bullion prices to build up its official gold holdings as part of a strategy for diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, a senior government economist said Monday.

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

China should take advantage of any weakness in bullion prices to build up its official gold holdings as part of a strategy for diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, a senior government economist said Monday.

Xia Bin, head of the financial research institute of the Development Research Center, a think tank under the Cabinet, also proposed that Beijing allow the yuan to fluctuate within a wider range against the dollar.

"It is practical for China to increase its holdings of gold by choosing an appropriate time to buy, because compared with other big trading countries the percentage of gold in China's reserves is seriously low," Xia said in an article on his agency's Web site.

Xia also suggested China establish an international investment fund with the aim of increasing returns from its US$900 billion-plus (HK$7.02 trillion) stockpile of reserves.

Chinese individuals should be permitted to buy into the fund, which would allow them to hold foreign exchange indirectly, he wrote. -source



Bank of Portugal sells 15 tonnes of gold
07/04/06 11:12 am (GMT)
LISBON (AFX) - The Bank of Portugal said it has sold 15 tonnes of gold from its reserves in the last few months.

The bank said the sales were aimed at diversifying its external reserves, with the proceeds to be kept in a special reserve at the central bank.

Last December, the bank sold 10 tonnes of gold.

The sales were carried out as part of the European Central Bank's agreement on gold sales which limits annual gold sales to 500 tonnes up to 2009. -source



Technically the daily chart from two days ago shows a Three White Soldiers - Bullish reversal pattern (high reliability)

If you look at the weekly spot gold chart below what I see is a relatively good support between the 61.8% fibonnaci line on the short set and the 38.2% on the long set (610$ -613$). If that support doesn’t hold then gold will probably go down to the lower Fibonacci lines (573$ - 586$). Slight resistance around 636$ and more resistance at 656$ - 658$.


 spot gold weekly chart


 spot gold 1999 chart

Monday, July 03, 2006

XAUUSD Chart, Gold & Silver News

The UAE Dirham is officially pegged to the US dollar at 3.6725 Emirati dirhams per 1 US dollar since February 2002. Reserves of foreign exchange and gold are estimated at 23.53 billion USD (2005 CIA data)

UAE Central Bank set to enter the gold market

The UAE Central Bank Governor this week gave his strongest hint yet that the emirates will shortly enter the gold market and also purchase euros as a diversification of the national currency reserves presently held in US dollars. With the US dollar ripe for devaluation this seems a timely initiative.

The Governor of the UAE Central Bank, Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi told reporters this week that the bank was preparing to convert up to 10 per cent of its currency reserves into gold, although he said that the bank currently held very little gold in its reserves.

'I don't think it is appropriate to buy gold now - it is too expensive. The appropriate time might come very soon. We could go up to 10 per cent,' he said. -source


Shanghai Gold Exchange is about to introduce silver trading for the first time

The regulatory framework for trading silver contracts will be completed as early as next month, said Tong Gang, the exchange's spokesperson.

The launch underscores the rapid development of the silver market in China, which is widely regarded as potentially the most important consumer, producer and exporter of the metal.

The exchange, which currently deals with platinum as well as gold, is expected to trade silver spot and spot-deferred contracts.

Spot contracts are ones that require payment at the time of purchase; spot-deferred contracts require payment a few days after the contract has been made.

Silver futures contracts could also be traded on the exchange.

The country's silver consumption, mainly used by electronics and chemical firms, was estimated at 2,600 tons last year. This compares with only 900 tons two decades ago.

The country is also an important producer and exporter of the metal. -source

See Copper TA Update

Below is gold spot daily chart:
gold spot daily chart

Monday, June 26, 2006

Gold , China & India

This two issues are potentially extremely significant:

Call to mix forex reserves
(Shanghai Daily)
Updated: 2006-06-26 10:19

China's bulging foreign-exchange reserves and massive holdings in US treasuries are prompting some economists and researchers to argue the nation should diversify part of its huge reserves into gold and oil.

China should consider buying more gold with its forex reserves to avoid any losses linked to possible devaluation of its US dollar-backed assets, two central bank officials said in a latest research note.

Using some of the forex reserves to buy gold could "maintain and raise the value of China's dollar holdings," Zhao Qingming from the central bank's Financial Research Institute and Luo Bin from its accounting department wrote in a note published in China Money Market this month.

Although it was still unclear whether the comment might signal any policy change by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, it has highlighted a growing concern over mounting risks in forex investments.

China has forex reserves of US$875 billion by the end of the first quarter this year, surpassing Japan's as the world's biggest.

The country now invests around 1.3 percent of its forex reserves in gold, or about 600 tons. That compares with 8,500-odd tons owned by the United States, which accounts for more than 70 percent of that country's forex reserves. -source


Mumbai: With two mutual fund houses planning to launch gold exchange traded funds (GETFs), investors can look forward to invest in a much safer asset class, after being taken on ride in the equity market.

Two Asset Management Companies (AMCs) UTI and Benchmark recently filed their offer documents with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to launch GETFs, which invest in gold as its underlying asset and trades like any other exchange traded fund on the bourses. - source

Friday, June 23, 2006

XAU, XAG Intraday Elliott Waves

The Gold Silver ratio (XAU / XAG) = ~ 57.16, Dow Jones Gold ratio ( Dow / Gold = ~ 18.92, Gold / Crude Oil = ~8.24.


More gossip regarding China:

China can convert part of forex reserves to gold - central bank officials
06.22.2006, 09:24 PM

SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - Two central bank officials suggested China can convert part of its foreign exchange reserves to gold holdings to head off risks from the depreciation of the US dollar, state media reported.

Converting part of foreign exchange reserves to gold can protect and increase the reserve assets, the official Shanghai Securities News reported,

citing an article written by Zhao Qinming, an official at the central bank's financial research institution and Luo Bin of its accounting department.

The article was published on the latest edition of China Money - a monthly magazine controlled by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, the paper said. – source

See HUI(potential)buy signals

It will take more time then I previously thought, but both gold and silver will head higher to new highs. I believe that an orderly appreciation in the price of gold and silver is welcomed and shouldn't pose no treat what so ever. – This is my opinion

Here are spot gold and silver intraday charts with Fibonacci lines and the Elliott wave count. Click on the charts below to enlarge:

XAU intraday chart

XAG intraday chart

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Cash Piles

China, Japan, Taiwan, RF lead in gold, forex reserves

08.06.2006, 11.28
XIANGGANG, June 8 (Itar-Tass) - - China, Japan, Taiwan and Russia are in the lead in the world in the volume of gold and foreign currency reserves, says a comparable report prepared by the Hong Kong Currency Department on the basis of the latest statistical data from different countries.
Of late, the biggest holder of state foreign currency reserves has been China which has more than 875 billion dollars. Japan, whose reserves were estimated at 864.1 billion dollars at the end of May, occupies the second place. Taiwan, whose reserves are equal 260.9 billion dollars, ranks third, and Russia with reserves of 247.3 billion dollars - - fourth. -source

Monday, May 22, 2006

Gold Market News

Do you feel the concentrated efforts to scare the market and calm down speculation in all markets by authorities and international banks?

To some degree Interests rates and short term liquidity can be controlled. however some of the market fundamentals can not be manipulated. Therefore it is still a good idea to look for trading and investment opportunities in all markets especially commodities with bullish fundamentals and favorable supply demand conditions.

Regarding Gold, here are some of the latest global gold market news from around the world:

RTS to launch gold, oil futures June 8

MOSCOW. May 22 (Interfax) - The Russian Trading System (RTS) will launch futures and options in gold and oil on June 8, the RTS said in a press release.

"We plan to launch oil and gold futures in June," Jacques Der Megreditchian, the RTS board chairman, told Interfax earlier. These will be the first in a series of planned commodity futures, he said. The RTS will base its settlement prices for oil futures on quotations from the Platts agency, he said.

Troika Dialog, an investment company where Der Megreditchian is managing director, said Troika Dialog would be the market-maker for the contracts. "We'll be acting as the market-maker and we'll be hedging in London and New York," he said.

The RTS also plans to trade futures in diesel fuel, aviation fuel and fuel oil. -InterFax

Indian first Gold Fund

Posted: Sun, 21 May 2006
[miningmx.com] -- DETAILS of India's gold-backed equity were released to the market after the scheme's backer, Benchmark Mutual, filed papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

The scheme, which is effectively India's first exchange traded fund (ETF), said the scheme includied plans to impose levies on entry and exit from the ETF.
The Financial Express, a Mumbai newspaper, said the product would levy a 4% entry load and 3% exit load on the Gold Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Gold BeES), as the product is called.

Gold BeEs is an open-ended scheme that will list on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Like the exchange traded fund it will invest in physical gold, the Financial Express said.
"The scheme seeks to generate returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by the domestic price of gold. At least 90% of the corpus will be held in physical gold, while the rest can be deployed in bonds and money market securities," the newspaper said. Each unit of Gold BeES will have a face value of Rs 100. Minimum investment is Rs 10,000 and in multiples of Rs 1,000 thereafter, it said. - source

Saudi firm buys gold from African central bank

Mon May 22, 2006 12:24 PM GMT
RIYADH (Reuters) - A private Saudi jeweller has bought 36 tonnes of raw gold from an African central bank for 1.8 billion riyals, a company spokesman said on Monday, confirming a newspaper report.

When asked about the report in leading Saudi business daily al-Eqtisadiah, the spokesman said: "That is correct."
He declined to elaborate.

The newspaper quoted Suleiman al-Othaim, board chairman of the Riyadh-based al-Othaim Gold and Jewellery firm, as saying the gold would be delivered in the fourth quarter of this year.
"The deal was concluded directly (with the unidentified African central bank) without any intermediary," the newspaper quoted him as saying.
It did not say when the transaction took place. -source

See Uranium & Titanium Stocks: CCJ , TIE

Friday, May 19, 2006

To melt or not to melt: That's the coin question...

Interesting story coming from Taiwan:

2006/5/19
The China Post staff

To melt or not to melt: That's the question.

Well, it's the question of the day.

What to melt?

Small coins, of course, now that the prices of copper, nickel and aluminum have soared just as gold and silver did.

Whether the melting has started in Taiwan on a scale large enough to cash in on the surge of metal prices is not known, but non-numismatist entrepreneurs certainly are looking into the possibilities of amassing a trove of small change to make the quick buck.

With the gold price hitting US$700 an ounce, one kilogram of lowly nickel can fetch close to ten pounds sterling -- 9 pounds 45.7 pence to be exact -- in London, where the same weight of once cheap copper is sold at three pounds 89.6 pence.

Ubiquitous aluminum? One pound 35 pence a kilo.

That makes it lucrative to get hold of at least one million NT$1 coins, melt them and sell them as ingots, according to an enterprising newly converted numismatist.

"You spend only NT$1 million," says the entrepreneur. "And you get NT$1.26 million."

But he doesn't say he has set up shop.

It's much better to melt half-dollar NT coins, he adds.

They are a little smaller in size than the NT$1 coins, but a half-dollar melted is worth NT$0.93 or 43 cents more than its par value.

The reason is that you have to have at least 3.8 metric tons of change to make your melting business go. You spend much less to get that much if you collect only half-dollars.

That is not quite right, the Central Bank of China points out.

For one thing, it's against the law.

Anyone found to have purposely destroyed the legal tender shall be sentenced to not over one year but not less than seven years in prison, the law says.

Moreover, a Central Bank expert says, it's not profitable at all to melt and sell.

The expert continues copper accounts for 92 percent of the 3.8 tons of NT$1 coins. They contain 6 percent of nickel and 2 percent of aluminum.

"In other words," the Central Bank official goes on, "there will be 3.496 tons of copper, 228 kilograms of nickel and 76 kilograms of aluminum."

Sold on the London market, they would bring in only NT$952,738. The breakdown is NT$817,225 for copper, NT$129,371 for nickel, and NT$6,142 for aluminum.

The net loss is NT$47,262. If freight is added, the loss will be even greater.

Wait a minute, the entrepreneur says.

"He may be right," the enterprising numismatist adds, "but you will do much, much better, if you collect the old NT$1 coins."

The old coin, known as the plum change for the flower on the back side, is no longer in use as the legal tender. "You don't have to worry about the long arm of the law," he adds.

It's heavier, six grams against only 3.8 grams of the coin in circulation.

As a result, NT$1 million worth of plum coins weigh up to six metric tons, of which 3.3 tons are copper. There are 1.08 tons of nickel and 1.62 tons of aluminum.

Altogether NT$1,904,164 will be made by getting NT$1 million worth of plum coins, melt them and sell them in ingots in London.

And there's a historical precedent.

In 1973, copper and nickel prices soared, and so many plum coins were melted and sold in ingots in Taiwan that an acute shortage of change resulted.

Butchers and grocers in Taipei came up with a clever way to make up for the shortage of change they have to give back to overpaying customers.

They printed their NT$1 IOUs. Their customers gladly accepted them. - source


Wednesday, May 10, 2006

China Gold reserves

Beijing whispers push gold to $700By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 10/05/2006)
Gold has surged to $700 an ounce for the first time in 26 years after Chinese economists suggested the country should quadruple its bullion reserves to protect against a falling dollar.

Speculators have been alert to any sign that Beijing may be planning to switch a portion of its massive $875bn reserves into gold, a move that would electrify the market.

They seized on comments yesterday by Liu Shanen, an official at the Beijing Gold Economy Development Research Centre, who said China should raise the portion of gold in its reserves from 1.3pc today to between 3pc and 5pc. Such a move would entail the purchase of 1,900 tonnes of gold, equivalent to gobbling up nine months of global mine production.

Washington's cold response to Iran's move to defuse nuclear tension also helped fuel yesterday's rally. "No one is buying Iran's overtures," said Frank McGhee, a metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services. "This is a purely geo-political move for gold. We've been here before. The difference is that this time, there are nukes involved."

June gold futures jumped $20.10 an ounce in New York, briefly touching the $700 line before falling back slightly.

Tan Yaling, an economist at the Bank of China, backed the call for higher gold reserves to "help the government prevent risks and handle emergencies in case of future possible turbulence in the international political and economic situation".

John Reade, a UBS analyst, said neither economist had any official role but hints were enough to drive prices in the current climate. "This is an investor frenzy, and China has become the biggest rumour in the gold world right now," he said.

Mr Reade said gold had changed stride since the middle of last year, the key moment when it broke out against all major currencies and began to attract investment from the big money brigade.

"Speculative and investment interest has replaced jewellery demand. The last time that happened was in 1979 to 1980," he said.

He said it was likely that Middle Eastern investors were switching petrodollars into gold after burning their fingers in local stock markets.

Ross Norman, director of the BullionDesk.com, said China may already be a silent buyer on the open market.

Central banks are supposed to record their gold purchases with the IMF promptly, but they have been known to move stealthily for months before declaring.

"This market has been bouncing back so quickly after each bout of profit-taking that it looks as if somebody big is trying to get in. It's too darn hot for my liking," he said.
Mr Norman said there was a fair chance that gold mining equities would start to play "catch-up". -source



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Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Gold , Silver Charts update , Iran CB

Interesting news coming from Iran:

Iran central bank moves to calm gold rush
Khaleej Times, (AFP)
19 April 2006

TEHERAN - Iran’s Central Bank moved on Wednesday to slow down a sharp rise in the price of gold, state television said on Wesdnesday, as traders spoke of increased public demand due to tensions over the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme.

The price of a gold coin weighing around 10 grammes (about a third of an ounce) reached 1.85 million rials (about 202 dollars) late Tuesday, a 25 percent surge on prices two weeks ago.

Following the Central Bank move to supply more coins -- which many Iranian prefer to buy rather than place cash in a bank -- prices fell back to 164 dollars.

“The price increase in is line with the rise in international prices, but there is an additional psychological factor here,” gold coin trader Javad Zargar told AFP.

He said demand spiked following last week’s announcement by hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran had succesfully eneriched uranium -- despite a UN Security Council call for a freeze of the sensitive nuclear work. -source


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