Gold, USD & Forex Update

Dear readers,

The USD is looking oversold here and some bounce might be expected. If you add a channel the way I did, you can see that the USD index is at the bottom of the channel. In addition, the USD just tested the psychological important 80 level – this level was rarely violated, ever.


USD Index Daily Chart (note the deep oversold condition of RSI 14)




































Try to avoid shorting the Yen as the crowed count this currency as a weak one. The interest rate on the yen is low and might continue to stay low for some time but the Japanese economy is not a weak economy in my book, not at all.

Particular vulnerable is the EURJPY pair which had already completed or might be very near to complete a seven years rally. A large correction is expected here – take note!

EURJPY Weekly Chart , Elliott wave count. (click to enlarge)





















Gold and silver had a nice rally (as expected) but some significant resistance seen for both. on the other hand gold in terms of Yen and Euro made some advance so the move was not all USD related. If the USD will start strengthening as it might gold can correct some of its recent 47$ rally. Corrections should be seen as a buying opportunity and the June low should hold.

Spot Gold weekly chart annotated with Fibonacci levels. (click to enlarge)

Gold Market News

First Japanese gold ETF due to launch Aug. 10

source

As well as Small-Lot Gold Futures Trading on TOCOM(100 grams per lot , margin = 12,000 Yen)

source

Korea : The government plans to establish an exchange for gold as early as next year.

By Lee Hyo-sik
Staff Reporter

"The government plans to establish an exchange for gold as early as next year to make gold transactions more transparent and discourage the smuggling of the precious metal.

According to the Ministry of Finance and Economy, the government will set up an exchange, an organization to manage and supervise gold distribution, next year to stem any illegal transactions and distribution of gold.

It will expand the exchange into a comprehensive commodity exchange, like New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), to deal with not only gold, but diamond, crude oil and other commodities as well.

The exchange will operate separately from the Korea Exchange (KRX) on which stocks, bonds and derivatives are traded, the ministry said."

source

Japan Should Diversify Reserves

Markets normally lead the press…

Japan Should Diversify Reserves, Abe Adviser Ito Says

By Shigeki Nozawa

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, should invest $700 billion of its currency reserves in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and corporate bonds, said Takatoshi Ito, an adviser to the prime minister.

The reserves should be managed by a special fund that will gradually diversify into euros, Australian dollars and emerging- market currencies, Ito said in an interview in Tokyo.

Central banks in South Korea, China and Taiwan have announced plans to buy assets with higher returns than U.S. debt, contributing to a 7.4 percent drop in the dollar against the euro in the past year. -source



Long term 27 years Gold / Yen Chart (XAUJPY) Price scale : 10K Yen per Gold Troy Ounce.

Gold Market Update

Gold trading is directionless, sentiment is negative as I observe at mainstream media publications.


Gold markets structural developments:


Small-Lot Gold Futures

100 gram gold contracts to be issued in China and Japan :



"BEIJING, June 26 -- The Shanghai Gold Exchange will launch individual gold bullion trading nationwide in July by teaming up with Industrial Bank."

-source


"TOCOM hopes to inaugurate the new section, aimed at attracting individual investors with reduced trading risks, on July 9. The basic trading unit will be lowered to 100 grams from one kilogram for the existing gold futures. The per-lot margin will be fixed at 12,000 yen for July compared with 90,000 yen for the existing market. Transactions will be settled with cash, not with physical delivery. The daily price fluctuation range will be initially set at 120 yen, twice as wide as for the existing gold futures."
-source


India Gold ETF's


"Sandesh Kirkire, CEO of Kotak Mahindra AMC:

Q: Can you put into perspective as to how much you would actually be investing in physical gold and how much would be in money markets?
A: I think a significant portion will be in physical gold and very marginal amount will remain in cash and cash equivalents. "

-source

IMF Gold Sell

Just for the record, someone needs to track these guys.


Japan's Omi Recommends IMF Sell Gold Reserves

Japan's finance minister said Saturday he had proposed to the International Monetary Fund's policy-steering body that the fund sell its gold reserves to cover its falling income.

"Japan has told (the committee): 'Why not sell gold?'" Finance Minister Koji Omi told reporters after attending the International Monetary and Financial Committee's spring meeting in Washington.

Omi's proposal is in line with Japan's long-held stance as well as recommendations made earlier this year by a high-level panel at the IMF. In late January, the panel, chaired by Andrew Crockett, president of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), urged the fund to sell some of its vast gold reserves and invest the proceeds to raise income.

The fund currently is unable to earn enough revenue to cover its operating costs because of its shrinking loan portfolio. Countries such as Brazil, the Philippines and Uruguay have paid off loans from the fund ahead of schedule, reducing interest payments to the international lender, while fewer nations are seeking the fund's financial support.

Commodities traders have been closely watching the IMF's handling of gold. The fund is the third-largest holder of gold reserves in the world, after the U.S. and German central banks. As of late last year, the IMF said it held 103.4 million ounces of gold. -source

Cash Piles

China, Japan, Taiwan, RF lead in gold, forex reserves

08.06.2006, 11.28
XIANGGANG, June 8 (Itar-Tass) - - China, Japan, Taiwan and Russia are in the lead in the world in the volume of gold and foreign currency reserves, says a comparable report prepared by the Hong Kong Currency Department on the basis of the latest statistical data from different countries.
Of late, the biggest holder of state foreign currency reserves has been China which has more than 875 billion dollars. Japan, whose reserves were estimated at 864.1 billion dollars at the end of May, occupies the second place. Taiwan, whose reserves are equal 260.9 billion dollars, ranks third, and Russia with reserves of 247.3 billion dollars - - fourth. -source

Gold spot 120 minutes chart.

Gold is up 20$ since its last bottom one week ago. Gold is trying to break out of the 20$ range box formation and the Bollinger bands look to be expending. The top of the box is exactly at the 38 Fibonacci line. So if its basing around, this line should provide good short term support. In my opinion, it will not be long before the price of gold will make new high.
The paper monies markets are less and less relevant for gold which moves up against all of the paper monies , right along his small buddy silver.

See this joke by MOF Japan:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Ministry of Finance said on Monday it will auction off modern gold coins from its collection through the Internet next February.
Some 2,445 coins will be sold on a Yahoo Japan Corp. site from February 3-19, the ministry said.
The MOF holds some 32,683 modern gold coins, which it plans to sell off by March 2008. A floor auction in October sold 1,037 coins, reaping some 561.82 million yen ($4.83 million)... Read More