Dear readers,
I got some nasty massages and emails lately, namely personal attacks. I just want to remind that I'm not a registered investment advisor, broker or dealer. All content on this site is either quoted from other online sources (normally linked to the source) or it is my own analysis and thoughts. Either way I do not recommend that anyone will act upon my analysis.
If you want to trade / speculate in capital markets be sure to take the time and study.
Regarding IMF, BIS, any other official organization and its employees: I have respect for all of those as I do think that some kind of supervision on the system is required. If I ever insult anyone or anything, please forgive me, I bag your pardon. My intention in referring to official institutions is to educate or archive events that I see as remarkable.
If time allows I will keep this blog up to date with my occasional analysis and anything interesting for me and my readers that I might find elsewhere.
As for the price of gold, it might be the case that higher gold prices will be required to support the structure of the global monetary system and general capital markets. Timing however remains a mystery.
Good Luck.
Showing posts with label blog. Show all posts
Showing posts with label blog. Show all posts
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Friday, April 20, 2007
Five Interesting Blogs for the Weekend
- The Elliott Wave Lives ON – Excellent Elliott wave blog, S&P and GLD wave counts included.
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JsMinset – Jim sinclair popular gold blog.
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Well designed and informative - Grace Cheng Forex Blog.
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Advanced XAU / GOLD Ratio Analysis at paint the charts.
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Sunday, April 15, 2007
Weekend Update
Dear readers,
Running this blog since late 2005 I have tried to cover many different subjects which all relate to gold. From weight and purity, through science and forex, to central banks and derivatives- Many different topics are covered.
However, Gold is a basic economic element and as such is affected and influenced by so many factors. This is why I have constantly linked to other information sources which I believe gold investors and traders will find interesting.
For general Economy and Investment issues I strongly recommend Bill Cara and Mish analysis, excellent blogs that will give you a broad and interesting view of what is going on in the markets.
In times I have been more positive in other times negative or natural. I have been wrong in my prediction more then once. Always take my analysis with a grain of salt; nobody can get it right all the time.
One of the most important issues in trading is time frame. I have posted all kind of gold charts, from one minute charts to long term monthly charts. Sometimes I tend to post intraday analysis which anyone who doesn’t day trade should discount. The point is: Always take my analysis with the context of the time frame related.
Currently I see that gold is higher then Friday high which means that the latest intraday Elliott wave count might be close to completion but it isn't there yet.
Stay tuned.
Running this blog since late 2005 I have tried to cover many different subjects which all relate to gold. From weight and purity, through science and forex, to central banks and derivatives- Many different topics are covered.
However, Gold is a basic economic element and as such is affected and influenced by so many factors. This is why I have constantly linked to other information sources which I believe gold investors and traders will find interesting.
For general Economy and Investment issues I strongly recommend Bill Cara and Mish analysis, excellent blogs that will give you a broad and interesting view of what is going on in the markets.
In times I have been more positive in other times negative or natural. I have been wrong in my prediction more then once. Always take my analysis with a grain of salt; nobody can get it right all the time.
One of the most important issues in trading is time frame. I have posted all kind of gold charts, from one minute charts to long term monthly charts. Sometimes I tend to post intraday analysis which anyone who doesn’t day trade should discount. The point is: Always take my analysis with the context of the time frame related.
Currently I see that gold is higher then Friday high which means that the latest intraday Elliott wave count might be close to completion but it isn't there yet.
Stay tuned.
Saturday, July 29, 2006
Off Topic - Who visit this Blog ?
Some statistical information regarding this blog visitors.
Data since December 20 , 2005 :
1) 92,119 Visits for a total 230,469 page views. About 55% of visits are returning visitors and 45% new visitors.
2) Geographic location: 55% of visitors from the United States the rest are coming from 99 other countries. Other then the USA most visitors are coming from: Canada, United Kingdom, Singapore, Australia, Hong Kong, Germany, Thailand, Israel, India and Italy.
3) Among visitors are hedge fund managers, speculators, physical buyers, international banks employees and academics.
4) Technical details:
Operating System: 95% using the windows platform, 4% using Macintosh, 1% UNIX systems.
Browsers: 71% are using Internet Explorer, 23% using FireFox , 6% other browsers.
Screen Resolutions: 50% - 1024x768, 16% - 1280x1024, 13% - 800x600 and the rest – 21% are mostly using various higher resolutions.
Data since December 20 , 2005 :
1) 92,119 Visits for a total 230,469 page views. About 55% of visits are returning visitors and 45% new visitors.
2) Geographic location: 55% of visitors from the United States the rest are coming from 99 other countries. Other then the USA most visitors are coming from: Canada, United Kingdom, Singapore, Australia, Hong Kong, Germany, Thailand, Israel, India and Italy.
3) Among visitors are hedge fund managers, speculators, physical buyers, international banks employees and academics.
4) Technical details:
Operating System: 95% using the windows platform, 4% using Macintosh, 1% UNIX systems.
Browsers: 71% are using Internet Explorer, 23% using FireFox , 6% other browsers.
Screen Resolutions: 50% - 1024x768, 16% - 1280x1024, 13% - 800x600 and the rest – 21% are mostly using various higher resolutions.
Sunday, March 05, 2006
What is a fair price for gold ?
It is my opinion that a fair price (or better said an exchange rate) for gold is the gold spot price which is constantly changing. It might seem simplistic but I have come to this conclusion after deep and prolonged thinking. The spot price for gold is a reflection of the aggregate forces which are active or inactive in the market, this is the price where the buyers and sellers meet and trading take place.
So basically I think that under current conditions it's a waste of time to try and calculate a "fair" price for gold which is based on one set of data or another.
However, if one is interested in gold I wish to offer the following issues:
1) What is gold?
2) How to measure gold? (Purity and weight)
3) Ratios which allows a non currency dependent comparison between other assets and gold: Gold and Oil ratio I , Gold and Oil ratio II , Gold / Silver exchange rate, Dow / Gold ratio.
4) What are the drivers behind the price of gold?
During the last couple of years I have devoted considerable amount of time studying this issues and the relations between them, my conclusions are as follows:
1) Gold is often misunderstood, gold is a subject for love and hate, fear and greed, richness and poverty – gold is a subject for mixed and contradicting emotions. The amount of psychology involved with gold is endless.
2) The word speculations and speculators are often attached to gold. Gold is also "virtually" traded within the Forex and futures markets as such gold is often traded in an extremely leveraged and margined manner. However another perspective for speculation and gold which is rarely discussed is the fact that gold is heavily shorted by some market forces. There is a possibility that the total outstanding positions in gold are greater then all gold in existence. This is long term speculation from the sell side which might have sold more gold then they own or worse – they might have sold more gold then they can get. This possibility encapsulates a potential for the biggest short squeeze in history.
3) Gold is traded, bought and sold for many different reasons and different forms. The following diagrams illustrate:
That’s it for now.
So basically I think that under current conditions it's a waste of time to try and calculate a "fair" price for gold which is based on one set of data or another.
However, if one is interested in gold I wish to offer the following issues:
1) What is gold?
2) How to measure gold? (Purity and weight)
3) Ratios which allows a non currency dependent comparison between other assets and gold: Gold and Oil ratio I , Gold and Oil ratio II , Gold / Silver exchange rate, Dow / Gold ratio.
4) What are the drivers behind the price of gold?
During the last couple of years I have devoted considerable amount of time studying this issues and the relations between them, my conclusions are as follows:
1) Gold is often misunderstood, gold is a subject for love and hate, fear and greed, richness and poverty – gold is a subject for mixed and contradicting emotions. The amount of psychology involved with gold is endless.
2) The word speculations and speculators are often attached to gold. Gold is also "virtually" traded within the Forex and futures markets as such gold is often traded in an extremely leveraged and margined manner. However another perspective for speculation and gold which is rarely discussed is the fact that gold is heavily shorted by some market forces. There is a possibility that the total outstanding positions in gold are greater then all gold in existence. This is long term speculation from the sell side which might have sold more gold then they own or worse – they might have sold more gold then they can get. This possibility encapsulates a potential for the biggest short squeeze in history.
3) Gold is traded, bought and sold for many different reasons and different forms. The following diagrams illustrate:
That’s it for now.
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Golden Thoughts
There are different kinds of groups in the gold market and the price of gold reflected in the gold charts is simply the history and present relationship resolving between them. Do not try to understand every move up or down in the price of gold this is simply impossible thing to do.
As we all know the gold market is both physical and paper market, some players are just prudent investors who look for wealth protection and others are extremely leveraged speculators looking for a volatile market and quick profits.
I believe hedge funds and automated systems are also getting more active in the gold markets, needless to mention central banks, bullion banks and gold miming companies.
The most important facts you should all remember:
1) The huge short positions which will provide both fuel and floor for this great gold bull market.
2) The emerging dispute between central banks themselves regarding the gold reserves.
3)Thousands years history of gold as money.
4) Depleting gold reserves and stagnating to declining gold mining production that even the most sophisticated technology could not improve.
Click to see PAAS and NEM annotated charts
As we all know the gold market is both physical and paper market, some players are just prudent investors who look for wealth protection and others are extremely leveraged speculators looking for a volatile market and quick profits.
I believe hedge funds and automated systems are also getting more active in the gold markets, needless to mention central banks, bullion banks and gold miming companies.
The most important facts you should all remember:
1) The huge short positions which will provide both fuel and floor for this great gold bull market.
2) The emerging dispute between central banks themselves regarding the gold reserves.
3)Thousands years history of gold as money.
4) Depleting gold reserves and stagnating to declining gold mining production that even the most sophisticated technology could not improve.
Click to see PAAS and NEM annotated charts
Saturday, January 21, 2006
Thoughts on gold
Gold is neither holy nor sacred; I do not worship gold or anything else for that matter.
The purpose of this site is to share my thoughts and knowledge.
Many analysts tend to explain the movements in the price of gold with political events, I disagree about that. In my opinion the price of gold doesn't have much to do with politics like most analysts tend to think.
What are the drivers behind the price of gold?
The variables which determine the price of gold could be devised into two main groups:
Internal variables:
1) Physical gold supply(limited) and demand.
2) Paper gold (futures, options, OTC derivatives, CFD, ETF, etc.) supply (unlimited) and demand.
3) Crowd psychology regarding gold – is gold cheap or expensive?, should I buy, sell or hold?, why is the price going up or down? , fear and greed. Etc.
External factors:
1) Monies supply in the form of M1, M2, M3…Mn , for each currency C1, C2, C3…Ck, Subtotal of the summarize matrix {[Mn] X [Ck]}
2) Systematic risks and malfunctions of the global monetary system and the crowd psychology regarding those issues.
3) Inflations deflations debates, expectations and perceptions.
All of those are very complicated issues which are largely misunderstood even by the professional gold analysts. That’s my opinion and this is why technical analysis is so important when you want to understand the gold market.
More later real1.
The purpose of this site is to share my thoughts and knowledge.
Many analysts tend to explain the movements in the price of gold with political events, I disagree about that. In my opinion the price of gold doesn't have much to do with politics like most analysts tend to think.
What are the drivers behind the price of gold?
The variables which determine the price of gold could be devised into two main groups:
Internal variables:
1) Physical gold supply(limited) and demand.
2) Paper gold (futures, options, OTC derivatives, CFD, ETF, etc.) supply (unlimited) and demand.
3) Crowd psychology regarding gold – is gold cheap or expensive?, should I buy, sell or hold?, why is the price going up or down? , fear and greed. Etc.
External factors:
1) Monies supply in the form of M1, M2, M3…Mn , for each currency C1, C2, C3…Ck, Subtotal of the summarize matrix {[Mn] X [Ck]}
2) Systematic risks and malfunctions of the global monetary system and the crowd psychology regarding those issues.
3) Inflations deflations debates, expectations and perceptions.
All of those are very complicated issues which are largely misunderstood even by the professional gold analysts. That’s my opinion and this is why technical analysis is so important when you want to understand the gold market.
More later real1.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Some points about Gold , this Site(Blog) and Myself
1) Im not a multi millionaire investor, not a professional author and English is not my mother language. I would like to stay anonymous.
2) Gold is an asset with extraordinary bullish fundamentals and technicals. I'm biased to the bullish side looking for bottoms not tops , it will stay that way for some time I suppose.
4) One of the biggest misunderstandings in the Investment world is the difference between investing and saving. In my opinion it is very simple: investing is putting capital to work in an active way (building a factory or a mine for instance..) while saving is more of a passive way to use capital (usually in the form of buying something on paper from brokers or buying gold coin from bullion shops) and gold is an excellent way to save capital in my opinion.
5) This site is hosted on Google bloger network mainly for security and privacy reasons.
6) I don’t write much when there isn't something special to write about.
7) I put lots of effort updating this site , feel free to enjoy it and benefit . If you wish to support this work click on the "make a donation" button on the bottom of the page.
2) Gold is an asset with extraordinary bullish fundamentals and technicals. I'm biased to the bullish side looking for bottoms not tops , it will stay that way for some time I suppose.
4) One of the biggest misunderstandings in the Investment world is the difference between investing and saving. In my opinion it is very simple: investing is putting capital to work in an active way (building a factory or a mine for instance..) while saving is more of a passive way to use capital (usually in the form of buying something on paper from brokers or buying gold coin from bullion shops) and gold is an excellent way to save capital in my opinion.
5) This site is hosted on Google bloger network mainly for security and privacy reasons.
6) I don’t write much when there isn't something special to write about.
7) I put lots of effort updating this site , feel free to enjoy it and benefit . If you wish to support this work click on the "make a donation" button on the bottom of the page.
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