The gold market is difficult to analyze for the reason that investors, traders, and speculators are buying gold for many different reasons. Inflation hedge, currency hedge, stocks, bonds property market, gold seems a good hedge against all of them. Others see gold as a war, terror play. The long term history of gold, the global market atmosphere and the recent price appreciation are all pushing gold back to the front stage of the global economy. The dust is being cleared as gold is gaining more market attention, the popularity is raising; gold is out of the dark corner.
Speculators are making transactions which result in quick profit or loss plus commissions. Others buy gold with a long term strategy in mind. The supply demand equilibrium is presenting a case of itself.
Technically, the intraday price range have gone as large as 40$ a day. The ascending triangle indicating a short term initial target of ~ 683$ per 1 gold troy ounce, the symmetrical triangle point to 671$ / 1 gold oz . Gold has gained 56% against the USD since the second Elliott wave started (41 weeks ago). The average positive return was 1.37% per week. If I extrapolate this data the new gold price target for 2006 is 939$.
See this post Gold Global Perspective: How high will gold go in 2006?
See Elliott wave tutorial