GLD Elliott Wave Count

The street TRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is the largest Gold ETF in the world, This fund currently holds 494.56 tonnes of gold (15,900,551 oz) which worth about 10,708,379,381 $.

Closely tracking the spot price of gold (less fees) the GLD is up trending since October 2006, while significant pullbacks took place along the way the line connecting the October low and January low remains a buying zone.

From an Elliott wave perspective, the count annotated on the chart implies that any pullback to not lower then ~63$ still maintains the bullish outlook.

Technical Indicators: RSI trending up above 50, PPO bullish crossover, trending up above the zero line.

GLD Chart

Dear readers,

The GLD chart is annotated with the uptrend channel inside a one year trading range of about 17$ which equals to 170$ in the dollar price per gold ounce. The chart includes the ETF volume bars and two indicators, RSI and PPO which both in the overbought territory after up trending since June 2006.

GLD to Start Earlier Trading

BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--State Street Global Markets LLC, an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors (“State Street”) (NYSE: STT), and World Gold Trust Services, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the World Gold Council, today announced that the opening of trading in streetTRACKS® Gold Shares (NYSE Symbol: GLD) on the New York Stock Exchange will be changed from 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time to 8:20 a.m. Eastern Time, effective Friday, February 9, 2007.

The earlier opening will allow investors to start trading streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD Shares) at the same time that trading in COMEX® gold futures and gold options commences at the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc.

See also : HUI and GDX charts update

Gold Market News Summery

Dear readers,

It was a busy month! , Posted below are some of the latest international gold market news:

IMF to make central bank gold lending data more transparent

Blanchard & Company study calling for greater transparency in central bank gold lending accounting has apparently helped to convince the International Monetary Fund to adopt a landmark accounting change in the way central banks account for gold loans.

http://www.mineweb.net/american_notes/596209.htm


IMF advised to sell 400 tonnes of gold


http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2007/tr070131.htm

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=Business_News&subsection=market+news&month=February2007&file=Business_News2007020293025.xml

Britains Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Secretary) Gordon Brown was accused in the House of Commons Thursday of losing the equivalent of over 4.5 billion dollars by selling gold assets when prices were low.


http://www.kuna.net.kw/home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=945883

Euro bank breaks rank, buys gold?

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/euro-bank-breaks-rank-buys-gold/2007/01/03/1167777153474.html



New gold products…

World Gold Council may offer new funds in Europe and India

http://www.bbj.hu/main/news_21208_world%2Bgold%2Bcouncil%2Bmay%2Boffer%2Bnew%2Bfunds%2Bin%2Beurope%2Band%2Bindia.html

Amfi expects launch of gold ETFs in Feb

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Commodities/Amfi_expects_launch_of_gold_ETFs_in_Feb/articleshow/1144457.cms


NCDEX to launch 10 gm gold contract

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Commodities/NCDEX_to_launch_10_gm_gold_contract/articleshow/1011695.cms

Gold ($, €, ¥) weekly charts

Some of the latest gold market news from around the world:

Singapore gold fund trading starts next week

SINGAPORE, Oct 5 (Reuters) - StreetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, would be cross-listed in Singapore next week in a move to capitalise on Asia's growing fondness for bullion.

It will be listed on Oct. 11 on the Singapore Exchange and would be Asia's first gold-based ETF.

StreetTRACK is the World Gold Council's New York Stock Exchange-listed product, with an average daily volume of around $400 million and assets in excess of $7 billion.-source



Official Statistics Confound Rumour of Heavy Central Bank Sales: CBGA Sales in Year 2 Confirmed as Well Under Quota at 393 Tonnes


As forecast in mid-September’s Gold Survey Update 1, sales by the signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) ended up far short of their annual 500 tonne quota at just 393 tonnes. This confounds market speculation during much of September that there had been a last minute rush to sell gold before the end of the second Agreement year (on 26th September) and that this was responsible for the period’s price weakness. -source



Riksbank reallocates gold and foreign currency reserves

The Riksbank intends to sell up to 10 tonnes of the gold reserve during the period 27 September 2006 to 26 September 2007. The sale is in compliance with the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) which was signed by 15 European central banks and came into force on 27 September 2004. The agreement, which runs for five years, enables the Riksbank to sell up to 60 tonnes of gold during this period. To date the Riksbank has sold a total of 25 tonnes of gold, 15 tonnes during the first year of the agreement and 10 tonnes during the second year. The Riksbank’s gold reserve currently amounts to 160 tonnes of gold.-source



CBOT 100 oz Gold Futures Surpass 60% Market Share

CBOT Full-sized Gold Futures Contract Surpass 60 percent Market Share for the First Time in a Single Trading Day
CBOT Full-sized Silver Futures achieves 10,000 contracts in open interest

CHICAGO October 4, 2006 The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) announced today that its Full-sized (100 oz.) Gold futures contract surpassed a market share milestone of

60 percent on October 2, capturing 64 percent of all listed Gold futures traded in North America that day. Open interest in the CBOT Full-sized (5,000 oz.) Silver futures grew beyond 10,000 contracts and set a new record of 10,064 contracts yesterday. The previous record was 9,959 contracts set on September 29, 2006.

Average daily volume in the CBOT Gold complex, consisting of Full-sized (100 oz.) Gold futures and options and mini-sized (33 oz.) Gold futures contracts, reached

52,464 contracts during September and achieved a market share of 54 percent of all Gold futures traded in North America for the month. -source



iShares Silver

BARCLAYS Global Investors has applied to register 15.2 million new shares in its iShares Silver Trust on AMEX doubling the total amount that could be invested, Reuters reported.

"We are registering additional shares. That does not mean the trust is automatically going to buy additional metal," Barclays spokeswoman Christine Hudacko told Reuters.-source



Year to date weekly charts of gold in terms of USD, Euro & Yen.

Gold Market News

Central Bank to increase gold metal reserves

RBC, 21.09.2006, Moscow 18:45:08.The Bank of Russia intends to increase the volume of gold metals in Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves, the Bank's First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told the State Duma budget committee today. The share of gold in the country's gold and foreign currency reserves is 3 percent at present. If the volume of gold metals increases, still its share will not raise, he noted.

The prices of gold and other precious metals have been rising lately but the market is correcting at present, Ulyukayev stressed. The gold price is now $550 per ounce, which is $80-90 lower than the record price. The metal prices are highly volatile at the moment, but the Central Bank has not imposed any limits on gold acquisition, he said.

Russia's gold reserves exceed 380 tonnes. -source

Agreement on electronic metals trading

By Kevin Morrison

Nymex Holdings is expected to issue $300m of shares to members of its metals futures division Comex, after an agreement on Thursday for Comex gold, silver and copper futures to trade electronically. -source

Finans Portfoy Launches First GOLD ETF in Turkey

Istanbul GOLD ETF, GOLDIST, will be offered to public on September 21st and 22nd.
Finans Portfoy, an Istanbul based asset management company, launches the first GOLD ETF in Turkey. Istanbul GOLD ETF, GOLDIST, will be listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and is expected to start trading next week. GOLDIST will be based on international Gold price and denominated in grams. -source


CBOT Expands Availability of Gold & Silver Options to Open Auction Market

CHICAGO, IL (September 20, 2006) – The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) announced today that it plans to expand the availability of its options on Full-sized Gold (100 oz.) and Silver (5,000 oz.) futures by listing the contracts on its open auction trading floor, side-by-side with the e-cbot® electronic trading platform, beginning in the fourth quarter of 2006. Currently, the contracts trade exclusively on e-cbot, the Exchange’s electronic trading platform.

Also, effective October 1, 2006, the CBOT is waiving all Exchange transaction fees for Metals options trading for all fee categories. The fee waiver will apply to Metals options trade transactions on both CBOT platforms. The transaction fee waiver will remain in effect until June 30, 2007. -source


American Stock Exchange Lists Central Gold-Trust

NEW YORK, Sept. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- The American Stock Exchange(R) (Amex(R)) announced today that it has begun trading the units of Central Gold-Trust under the ticker symbol "GTU". The Trust began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2003 under the ticker symbols "GTU.UN" (denominated in Canadian dollars) and "GTU.U" (denominated in US dollars) and is now dually listed on the Amex. -source

Gold and Silver Technical Update

GOLD TRUST (GLD) BEGINS TRADING ON MEXICO’S BMV-source

Silver consolidates around the 50% Fibonacci line. Support at 11.63$, trend line support at 11.20$ and raising, resistance at 13$.





Gold had a technical failure of minor proportion, the (C - 2) low on yesterday chart failed to hold. Yesterday wave count is modified to reflect the technical failure. There is nothing to worry about for investors but highly leveraged traders took a hit. The
Inverted head and shoulders pattern with price target of 677$ that I mentioned here is still in play - I believe, coincidently today low was the pattern neckline. Overall the downside for gold is limited while the upside potential is high.

Click on the chart below for enlarged view:

Nasdaq Gold ratio

It's easy to be bearish on the stock market with the sharp sell off the last few days and interest rate at 5 years high. However I think that the NASDAQ is close to a short term important bottom and a rally to new highs might surprise. In my opinion gold will continue to outperform the NASDAQ (as well as the other indices) but higher gold price will also allow the stock market to go higher. To put it simple: The stock market will continue to go up (Bull market) but it will go down relative to the price of gold(Bear market), I also expect the NASDAQ or QQQQ volume to go down relative to GLD volume.

Here is a NASDAQ chart annotated with Elliott waves count (current wave iv of c of 3), I see a potential Inverted Head & shoulders formation and the target is ~3300. Click on the chart below to enlarge

• The importance of the Dow Jones / Gold, Gold / Oil & Gold / Silver ratios
  

Exchange Traded Gold funds - ETF ( GLD , GBS , GOLD)

There are currently 4 ETF's which claim that their gold assets are backed by allocated gold held in a vault on behalf of investors. Tottal assets ( as of April 12 2006) = 446.37 Tone (14,350,871 Ounces)

( GLD ) New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Streettracks, Gold Shares. - link

( GBS ) LSE (London Stock Exchange) AND Euronext Paris Gold Bullion Securities. - link

( GOLD ) Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) Gold Bullion Securities. - link

( GLD ) Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) New Gold Debentures - link



( AMEX : DBC ) Deutsche Bank Commodity ETF ( DBLCI )
( AMEX : USO ) United States Oil Fund Lp

Gold and Silver, Virtual vs. Real

Genesis 13:2 (New International Version)
New International Version (NIV)

"Abram had become very wealthy in livestock and in silver and gold."

The last couple of trading days gold and silver lost some synchronization, while both sharply declined yesterday silver quickly based around support but gold drifted lower.
In my opinion a good reason for this could be the real vs. virtual metals issue. As I wrote already a couple of times - I think that Investors preferences are changing at this stage of the Great Global Gold (& Silver) Bull Market (GGGBM or GGSBM). Not all gold holdings are equal, for example a 1 oz gold coin in your hand does not equal 10 GLD shares in your broker account. I have been long saying that Investors (especially small investors) should own physical metals (preferably at home).

Don’t get me wrong , If for some reason your only way to invest in gold is a gold fund then it better then nothing, but If you can choose between 10 gold coins and 10,000$ in a gold fund I will definitely choose the gold coins.
There is much to say about real vs. virtual metals and obviously I cannot cover this entire subject in one day. One more point – It's not black or white it is more like a real vs. virtual scale. So what I see in the market is this: Investors are loosing some appetite for Precious metals stocks and for now they find confidence in buying silver coins. I will soon write more about this issue but for now Silver is set to lead but the out look for gold continue to be positive.

For HUI(AMEX Gold Bug Index) chart click Here

Click on the charts below to enlarge: