Tuesday, March 13, 2007

¥ Japanese Yen Long Term Chart Analysis

The Yen Is a hot topic lately and so called "Experts" decided that the Yen is to be blamed for the recent volatility hiccup of the global markets. Well, it is true that gold in term of yen made a new 20 plus year high just recently whereas in terms of USD and Euro it did not. This fact might be important to remember.

As for the USD/JPY pair?

Let's put aside the carry trade and interest rates and look at the charts.

From the 30 years chart we can learn that the Yen bottomed / USD topped at 1982 some 25 years ago! Back then 1 USD was worth about 277 Yen. Between 1982 and 1995 the USD declined to about 79 Yen for a loss of about 71%. Note that the 13 years decline was done in a three wave pattern. According to my count the USD/JPY is currently in wave (iii) and headed higher then 135 – wave (i). If you need a basic wave guide I highly recommend that you use this free Elliott wave tutorial.

Note that the 50 month MA is as stable as ever and volatility is relatively low for the last decade as the pair still trades between the 1995 low and the 1998 high. The USDJPY pair might be breaking up from a long term symmetrical triangle.

30 Years USDJPY Chart.

USDYPY Chart long term chart

Japanese Yen / US Dollar 1994 - 2007



Anonymous said...

Nice chart...

A 50% retracement of the previous down cycle seems to be within reason. That should put us around YEN 175ish.

Anonymous said...

What about the affects of central bankers and interest rates? The BOJ is just starting to raise rates, which would strengthen the yen. And the USD is on a long term decline unless the Fed decides to change tactics other than printing money, which does not seem to be the case.

troy said...

As explained, this is a pure technical analysis, as for future Interest rates and central banks actions - they will be reflected on the technical picture.

Anonymous said...

This guy needs to go back and re-learn his Elliott Wave analysis. How couldn't you see a 4-wave triangle with all the 3's in it?



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