Gold technical update

Dear readers,

This week the August gold contracts (GCQ8, ZGQ8, YGQ8) traded between ~913$ and ~859$ (54$ range). The price did go below 868$ - 864$ but closed the week at ~873$.

For August gold the important low is ~850$ and if that cant hold then there is major support between 835$ and 770$ ( spot gold price). Spot gold 65 weekly moving average currently around 786$.



Resistance zones for GCQ8 : ~895$, ~913$, ~940$, ( 964$ - 968$ ) and 1040$.


GCQ8 480 minutes chart annotated with short term relevant Fibonacci levels.





Spot gold linear weekly chart with Fibonacci levels.

August Gold (GCQ8) & Spot Silver (XAGUSD) update

Dear readers,

This last week we have probably seen a successful retest of the low of 864$ and currently gold is trying to move higher towards resistance zone at ~940$.


Support zones for the GCQ8 contract : ~868$, ~864$, ~850$ and Fibonacci levels.

Resistance zones for GCQ8 : ~940$, ~960$, ~964$, ~1040$ and Fibonacci levels.


GCQ8 August gold contract - 8 hours linear Fibonacci chart




Silver has been consolidating and have first support at the 15.96$ – 16.40$ zone and resistance at the 18.33$ – 18.72$ zone. (spot silver prices)


XAG/USD - silver spot daily chart

August Gold (GCQ8)

Currently the Comex August 100 oz gold future is the most active contract (GCQ8) , open interest for this contract is 257,894 according to NYMEX website.

GCQ7 topped at 03/17/2008 @ 1039.8$ and recently bottomed at 05/02/2008 @850.5$. The trading range this year was ~190$ so far.


Since the 05/02/2008 bottom gold managed to climb ~90$ but then pulled back and lost most of the gain.

Support zones for the GCQ8 contract : ~871$, ~864$, ~850$.

Resistance zones for GCQ8 : ~940$, ~960$, ~964$, ~1040$.



Once this ~190$ trading range is violated refer to the logarithmic weekly gold spot chart below for potential targets and support resistance zones.


GCQ8 August gold contract - 8 hours linear Fibonacci chart




XAU/USD - gold spot weekly log Fibonacci chart

Gold price short term update

Dear readers,

Gold have managed to break and close above the diagonal trend line resistance. Gold is currently trying to rally higher , there is significant resistance zones all the way up to the top at 1038$ (GCM8) , so new highs are not likely any time soon. What is likely is a prolonged consolidation period similar to the price action that took place between mid 2006 and mid 2007.

The price of gold might have to base around till the 65 weekly moving average will be near.

Short term resistance and support zones as well as Fibonacci levels are outlined on the 8 hours gold futures candle chart below .




The longer term linear weekly bar chart annotated with the 65 moving average ( spot gold 65 MA)






The relevant post Nixon gold "Fix" monthly chart (1971 - 2008)

Gold short term technical update

From mid March to early may the price of the Comex June gold contract (GCM8) pulled back about 190$ (1038$ > 846$) currently trading around 885$ . Along gold recent weakness there is some USD strength vs some of the other popular currencies such as the Euro , Yen , British pound, Swiss frank and others.

The trend is still down ( as defined by the diagonal line connecting the major top (1038$ at mid March) with the secondary top (~956$ at mid April), But there is a minor uptrend inside that bigger down trend channel which give some chance for the 846$ bottom to hold.

Support levels : diagonal minor trend line , ~876$, ~856$, ~846$, ~817$, ~792$

Resistance levels : diagonal downtrend line, ~897$, ~913$, ~930.5$, ~957.5$, ~977$, ~1039$.

June Comex gold futures (GCM8) 8 hours chart