Sunday, March 30, 2008

Gold chart & update

The climate: Continued stress of banks and other financial institutions. In my opinion the source of this stress is illiquidity of non trade able (unlisted at a public exchange) financial “products”.

Outlook: High volatility is present in all markets, extreme events in which investment banks remove huge amounts of liquidity while central banks creates huge amount of liquidity to fill the “holes”.


Recent pullback was the biggest since August 2007 bottom, the spot price of gold came down ~128$ (905$) since it's top at 1033$. The spot price of silver dropped from it's top at ~21.35 to ~16.67$.

The trend line which connect the August and November bottoms is still intact. See the chart below for Fibonacci proportions and less steep trend lines. If the recent bottom zone at 905$ - 884$ will not hold then the price might retrace to about 790$ if not lower.

Later on and depending on the fundamental events which will be reflected on the charts – gold might move higher or maybe much higher then recent highs.

spot gold chart